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Uprisings across the Arab world. Bearings askew. Sands shifting like nobody's business. And into this disorienting world of new uncertainties, the Islamic Republic of Iran sends a pair of warships toward the Suez Canal, bless its heart. It's the diplomatic equivalent of comfort food, like coming across mashed potatoes and green beans on a table where you don't recognize any of the other foods.
The vocabulary is familiar, too. Throughout the Cold War the Sixth Fleet steamed toward the Suez to signal U.S. concern about something on the far side of it and, of course in the process, raised tensions that rose further still when Soviet warships made some counter-move on the global chessboard. But if the Iranian cruiser Kharg and the frigate Alvand leave the Red Sea early on Tuesday and nose toward the Mediterranean as scheduled, the significance will be in the passage itself. No Iranian military vessel has traveled the Suez since 1979, the year Iran's shah was dispatched by the kind of mass demonstrations now threatening autocrats from Morocco to Bahrain. (See pictures of the long shadow of Ayatullah Khomeini.)
"Iran is trying to take advantage of the situation that has arisen and broaden its influence by transferring two warships via the Suez Canal," Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his cabinet Sunday. "Israel takes a dim view of this Iranian step." The prime minister threatened no military move in response, except to site the provocation as a reason to hike defense spending.
It might be mere coincidence that the Kharg and Alvand showed up only after Hosni Mubarak stepped down as Egypt's president. "I assumed it was planned before this," says Ephraim Kam, deputy director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Kam sees the passage as an Iranian effort to project strength outside the Persian Gulf; to signal overt support for Hizballah and Syria, the announced destination; and finally to answer Israel, which has sent missile boats through the canal as recently as a year ago, and once even a submarine. In the Cold War of the modern Middle East, after all, the poles are Jerusalem and Tehran. (See TIME's complete coverage of the crisis in the Middle East.)
Yet in this Cold War, Mubarak's Egypt was on the same side as Israel. The deposed president loathed Iran, and almost certainly wouldn't have allowed Iran to send ships through the Suez, as Egypt's new military leaders have done despite Israel's pleas. "Beware of Egypt's wrath," Mubarak publicly warned in 2009 after state media announced the arrest of 49 people Egypt said were agents of Hizballah. An Israeli intelligence source said the captured operatives had "built a very big infrastructure" in Egypt that included apartments and speedboats on, yes, the Suez. The source said Egyptian security services captured, "at least two high level Hizballah operatives" carrying false passports.
The vocabulary is familiar, too. Throughout the Cold War the Sixth Fleet steamed toward the Suez to signal U.S. concern about something on the far side of it and, of course in the process, raised tensions that rose further still when Soviet warships made some counter-move on the global chessboard. But if the Iranian cruiser Kharg and the frigate Alvand leave the Red Sea early on Tuesday and nose toward the Mediterranean as scheduled, the significance will be in the passage itself. No Iranian military vessel has traveled the Suez since 1979, the year Iran's shah was dispatched by the kind of mass demonstrations now threatening autocrats from Morocco to Bahrain. (See pictures of the long shadow of Ayatullah Khomeini.)
"Iran is trying to take advantage of the situation that has arisen and broaden its influence by transferring two warships via the Suez Canal," Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his cabinet Sunday. "Israel takes a dim view of this Iranian step." The prime minister threatened no military move in response, except to site the provocation as a reason to hike defense spending.
It might be mere coincidence that the Kharg and Alvand showed up only after Hosni Mubarak stepped down as Egypt's president. "I assumed it was planned before this," says Ephraim Kam, deputy director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Kam sees the passage as an Iranian effort to project strength outside the Persian Gulf; to signal overt support for Hizballah and Syria, the announced destination; and finally to answer Israel, which has sent missile boats through the canal as recently as a year ago, and once even a submarine. In the Cold War of the modern Middle East, after all, the poles are Jerusalem and Tehran. (See TIME's complete coverage of the crisis in the Middle East.)
Yet in this Cold War, Mubarak's Egypt was on the same side as Israel. The deposed president loathed Iran, and almost certainly wouldn't have allowed Iran to send ships through the Suez, as Egypt's new military leaders have done despite Israel's pleas. "Beware of Egypt's wrath," Mubarak publicly warned in 2009 after state media announced the arrest of 49 people Egypt said were agents of Hizballah. An Israeli intelligence source said the captured operatives had "built a very big infrastructure" in Egypt that included apartments and speedboats on, yes, the Suez. The source said Egyptian security services captured, "at least two high level Hizballah operatives" carrying false passports.