CASPER
New member
SKorea expects NKorea rocket launch Saturday
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEOUL (AFP) – South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak said he expects the communist North to try to press ahead with a planned rocket launch Saturday, brushing off calls for restraint by the international community.
The United States and its allies, particularly South Korea and Japan, have condemned the plan as a threat to regional stability and urged the reclusive regime to call off the launch at the eleventh hour.
Pyongyang previously said the launch will be between Saturday and Wednesday, but speaking to a group of reporters in London, including AFP, Lee said he believed the North would press ahead Saturday, if the weather is good enough.
"If they think it's suitable for them, it's going tomorrow," Lee said, but warned the North that it was "not in their benefit."
But South Korea's weather agency, in a revised forecast, predicted cloudy skies and moderately strong winds at the Musudan-ri launch site in North Korea's northeast on Saturday, with the wind likely to drop Sunday and Monday.
US President Barack Obama demanded the regime call off the launch.
"We have made very clear to the North Koreans that their missile launch is provocative," Obama said during a joint news conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Strasbourg, ahead of the 60th anniversary NATO summit.
"Should North Korea decide to take this action, we will work with all interested parties in the international community to take appropriate steps to let North Korea know that it can't threaten the safety and security of other countries with impunity."
North Korea says the rocket is a telecommunications satellite as part of a peaceful space programme.
Analysts agree it probably will launch a satellite, but critics believe the real purpose is to test the launch vehicle -- a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile which could, in theory, reach Alaska or Hawaii.
That would be in defiance of a UN resolution passed after the North's 2006 missile and nuclear tests.
It comes at a sensitive time, with negotiations on dismantling its nuclear weapons programme in deadlock over verification procedures.
However, Washington later Friday said the nuclear disarmament talks would resume even if the launch goes ahead, but only after the "dust settles".
Stephen Bosworth, the US special representative on North Korea policy, said he still hoped the firing of the rocket might not go ahead.
"We have continued to urge, as we urge now, (North Korea) not to launch this. Whether it's a satellite launch or a missile launch, in our judgment makes no difference. It's a provocative act," Bosworth told a press conference.
Pyongyang has warned that any attempt to intercept the rocket -- as Japan has threatened to do if it looks like it might land on Japanese soil -- would be viewed as an act of war.
Seoul's defence ministry said it had strengthened monitoring and vigilance, while the unification ministry, which handles cross-border ties, urged groups and individuals to avoid visits to the North from Saturday.
Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso said the launch would "damage peace and stability in the region" and violate UN resolutions, and would have to be brought before the UN Security Council.
Japan and the United States have deployed anti-missile Aegis destroyers to monitor the launch, while Tokyo has also deployed Patriot guided-missile units on land.
The North fired a shorter-range Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998 as part of a failed satellite launch.
It also fired a longer-range Taepodong-2 in 2006 but that test failed, and the missile exploded after 40 seconds.
This time around, "they are very confident the launch will be successful," said Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.
He said the three-stage rocket is 32 metres (106 feet) tall, weighs around 80 tonnes and could potentially deliver a one-tonne warhead 6,000 kilometres (3,750 miles).
Choi Choon-Heum, senior research fellow of the Korea Institute for National Reunification, told reporters Pyongyang wants to develop its intercontinental missile capability and induce Washington to hold direct talks. Pinkston, however, said domestic considerations are likely the key motive. "A successful launch would be a major psychological boost for the regime," he added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEOUL (AFP) – South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak said he expects the communist North to try to press ahead with a planned rocket launch Saturday, brushing off calls for restraint by the international community.
The United States and its allies, particularly South Korea and Japan, have condemned the plan as a threat to regional stability and urged the reclusive regime to call off the launch at the eleventh hour.
Pyongyang previously said the launch will be between Saturday and Wednesday, but speaking to a group of reporters in London, including AFP, Lee said he believed the North would press ahead Saturday, if the weather is good enough.
"If they think it's suitable for them, it's going tomorrow," Lee said, but warned the North that it was "not in their benefit."
But South Korea's weather agency, in a revised forecast, predicted cloudy skies and moderately strong winds at the Musudan-ri launch site in North Korea's northeast on Saturday, with the wind likely to drop Sunday and Monday.
US President Barack Obama demanded the regime call off the launch.
"We have made very clear to the North Koreans that their missile launch is provocative," Obama said during a joint news conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Strasbourg, ahead of the 60th anniversary NATO summit.
"Should North Korea decide to take this action, we will work with all interested parties in the international community to take appropriate steps to let North Korea know that it can't threaten the safety and security of other countries with impunity."
North Korea says the rocket is a telecommunications satellite as part of a peaceful space programme.
Analysts agree it probably will launch a satellite, but critics believe the real purpose is to test the launch vehicle -- a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile which could, in theory, reach Alaska or Hawaii.
That would be in defiance of a UN resolution passed after the North's 2006 missile and nuclear tests.
It comes at a sensitive time, with negotiations on dismantling its nuclear weapons programme in deadlock over verification procedures.
However, Washington later Friday said the nuclear disarmament talks would resume even if the launch goes ahead, but only after the "dust settles".
Stephen Bosworth, the US special representative on North Korea policy, said he still hoped the firing of the rocket might not go ahead.
"We have continued to urge, as we urge now, (North Korea) not to launch this. Whether it's a satellite launch or a missile launch, in our judgment makes no difference. It's a provocative act," Bosworth told a press conference.
Pyongyang has warned that any attempt to intercept the rocket -- as Japan has threatened to do if it looks like it might land on Japanese soil -- would be viewed as an act of war.
Seoul's defence ministry said it had strengthened monitoring and vigilance, while the unification ministry, which handles cross-border ties, urged groups and individuals to avoid visits to the North from Saturday.
Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso said the launch would "damage peace and stability in the region" and violate UN resolutions, and would have to be brought before the UN Security Council.
Japan and the United States have deployed anti-missile Aegis destroyers to monitor the launch, while Tokyo has also deployed Patriot guided-missile units on land.
The North fired a shorter-range Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998 as part of a failed satellite launch.
It also fired a longer-range Taepodong-2 in 2006 but that test failed, and the missile exploded after 40 seconds.
This time around, "they are very confident the launch will be successful," said Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.
He said the three-stage rocket is 32 metres (106 feet) tall, weighs around 80 tonnes and could potentially deliver a one-tonne warhead 6,000 kilometres (3,750 miles).
Choi Choon-Heum, senior research fellow of the Korea Institute for National Reunification, told reporters Pyongyang wants to develop its intercontinental missile capability and induce Washington to hold direct talks. Pinkston, however, said domestic considerations are likely the key motive. "A successful launch would be a major psychological boost for the regime," he added.
