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Flood experts are asking Manitobans not to jump to conclusions about the severity of a U.S. forecast regarding anticipated springtime levels of the Red River at Fargo.
An advisory issued by the U.S. National Weather Service Tuesday warned of a 20 per cent chance the Red River will surpass a record crest set in 2009. There's also about a 50 per cent chance it will beat last year's crest, which was the sixth highest on record, the weather service said.
But that doesn’t mean a similar result in Manitoba is an absolute, said Steve Topping of the provincial water stewardship department.
"A major flood in Fargo does not necessarily translate into a large flood in Manitoba," Topping said.
"We certainly are aware that soil moisture conditions at freeze-up were very high, both in the United States portion and the Manitoba portion of the Red River Basin ... (but) the Fargo area definitely has more snow than Manitoba has at this time."
Topping was in Fargo for an annual meeting of the Red River Basin Commission, an organization of municipal leaders and environment groups on both sides of the border.
Manitoba faces a "very high" flood potential this spring, due to a very wet summer and fall last year that has left the ground saturated, Topping said.
But, he added, much will depend on how quickly the snow melts in April, and how much more snow and rain Manitoba receives in the interim.
However, the Manitoba government will use the U.S. data to help calculate Manitoba's flood forecast, expected for release on Monday.
The probability has increased for several reasons, including above-normal water in the snowpack in the river's southern valley.
The Red River flows north into Manitoba, draining into Lake Winnipeg. Areas through Manitoba's Red River Valley are also bracing for spring flooding.