What DBS Can Expect in 4Q

CASPER

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What DBS Can Expect in 4Q

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There has been a lot of talk about how the holiday season could be a bummer for the multiplatform business.

But maybe it won't be so bad for satellite TV?

In estimates released last week, Tom Eagan of Collins Stewart made some projections about the fourth quarter performance of DBS companies. And some of the predictions didn't look too challenging.

For DISH Network, an aggressive promotion effort could translate to subscriber growth at the small dish company. "With the highest churn we have ever seen in the DBS industry, we expect DISH will endeavor to counteract this by aggressively promoting both its solo service and its triple play service with AT&T in the fourth quarter," said the analyst.

Eagan said such an effort might allow DISH to meet his estimate of 30,000 net subscriber additions in the fourth quarter.

Still, 2009 could be tough for the No. 2 satellite TV company. Last week, Eagan lowered his net subscriber addition estimate for DISH from a gain of 17,000 for the year to a net loss of 99,000.

As for DIRECTV, Eagan said the company's fourth quarter subscriber growth could outpace other players in the industry. "Although management of many multichannel providers were cautious about or reduced their fourth quarter fundamental outlook, DIRECTV's Chase Carey was bullish about the company's subscriber growth prospects," Eagan said.

Given Carey's guidance for fourth quarter net subscriber additions to be in the low to mid-200,000 range, Eagan said his estimate of 215,000 net adds for DIRECTV is in line with company expectations.
 
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